Gartner Forecasts 85 Million Electric Vehicles Will Be on the Road by End of 2025

Dubai, UAE, October 22, 2024: By the end of 2025, 85 million electric vehicles (EVs) - cars, buses, vans and heavy trucks – are expected to be on the road, according to the latest forecast by Gartner, Inc.

“Despite several hurdles affecting the EV market over the past few months, we are projecting the number of EVs in use globally to total 64 million units in 2024 and increase 33% in 2025,” said Jonathan Davenport, Sr Director Analyst at Gartner. “Many companies overestimated how quickly the switch to EVs would occur. This caused those companies to delay launching new EV models. The growth in 2025 will be driven primarily by higher EV sales in China (58%) and Europe (24%), which together are projected to represent 82% of total EVs in use worldwide.”

Globally, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in use are forecast to total almost 62 million units by the end of 2025, an increase of 35% from 2024. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are expected to grow at a slightly slower rate and reach an installed base of 23 million units in 2025, up 28% from 2024 (see Table 1).

Table Below. Electric Vehicle Installed Base by Vehicle Type, Worldwide, 2023-2025 (Single Units)

BEVs 

32,628,884 (2023 installed base)

45,872,824 (2024 installed base)

61,860,183 (2025 installed base)

PHEVs

13,402,907 (2023 installed base)

18,159,560 (2024 installed base)

23,283,006 (2025 installed base)

Total

46,031,791 (2023 installed base)

64,032,383 (2024 installed base)

85,143,189 (2025 installed base)

Source: Gartner (October 2024)

Regionally, the ownership of EVs in China is projected to continue to dwarf the rest of the world’s combined installed base through 2025 and likely the next decade. Demand for EVs will steadily grow in Europe and North America, which is projected to account for 36% of global EVs in 2024. By 2025, Gartner estimates 49 million EVs will be on the road in China, compared to 20.6 million EVs in Europe and 10.4 million EVs in North America.

By 2030, Automakers Will Enable the Recycling of 95% of Batteries from EVs to Mitigate the Risk from Raw Material Shortage
With EV sales expected to rise year-over-year, a shortage of raw materials will not be easy to resolve. “A robust recycling effort to take advantage of materials in spent batteries and scrap from the manufacturing production process, which, together with EU efforts to mandate battery recycling, could reduce the need for more mineral excavation,” said Davenport.

“Because concentrations of rare metals in batteries are higher than in natural ores, spent batteries can be seen as highly enriched ore,” said Davenport. “If recovered at large scale, the spent batteries could support the overall commercial viability of EVs by bringing battery prices down. There would be the additional benefit of batteries not ending up being disposed of in unethical manners or put into landfill sites.”

Gartner clients can read more in “Forecast: Electric Vehicle Shipments, Worldwide, 2023-2032.”

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